David Appleton: AI in maritime – hype vs reality

In recent years, the narrative surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has dominated headlines, with many predicting it will revolutionise the world of work. A report by the Institute for Public Policy Research estimates that up to eight million UK jobs could be at risk as AI increasingly handles routine cognitive tasks.

The maritime industry is no exception to this trend, with the AI market expected to exceed $3 billion by 2028. Companies are touting AI-driven applications in areas such as weather routing, safety monitoring, hazard detection, and decision support systems. Amidst this hype, it seems to be taken as a given that these AI systems will perform tasks at least as effectively as the seafarers who currently manage them, potentially sidelining or even replacing human workers.

However, before we accept these projections as inevitable, it's worth remembering that we've been here before. The Yara Birkeland, heralded as the world’s first fully autonomous vessel by 2020, still operates with a crew onboard. Similarly, ambitious predictions made by Rolls-Royce, MOL, and others during the peak of the autonomous ship hype now seem unlikely to materialise within the given timeframes.

Recently, senior business figures have started voicing concerns that AI might be overhyped. They've also criticised the practice of 'AI washing', where companies exaggerate the capabilities of their supposedly AI-powered products. So what is the real impact of AI on maritime, particularly for seafarers?

While AI undoubtedly holds promise for practical applications and could reduce seafarers' workloads, the industry’s primary focus seems to be on reducing crew numbers. This is evident from recent efforts to relax the requirement for a second watchkeeper at night to facilitate trials of AI watchkeeping systems. In our view, this approach is premature. Regulations should be grounded in solid evidence rather than driven by hype and speculative predictions, which too often turn out to be nothing more than hot air.

If technology can genuinely enhance safety and improve working conditions, it should be embraced. However, before we consider relaxing any regulatory standards, manufacturers must provide solid, verifiable evidence that their AI systems deliver on their promises. The maritime industry cannot afford to gamble on unproven technologies at the expense of skilled seafarers. It is imperative that we prioritise rigorous testing and uphold the highest safety standards, ensuring that AI complements rather than compromises the efforts of our maritime professionals.